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The black swan nicholas taleb6/28/2023 ![]() ![]() ![]() Weight distribution plot (Credit: Boston University )Įxtremistan, on the other hand, is a very different realm. Is the death of the turkey a Black Swan event just because the turkey is used to look forward, on a linear way, expecting simplistic and repeatable patterns? Or is the world rather a way more complex place, plenty of butchers?Įxamples of Black Swan events are the invention of the computer, best selling books - such as Harry Potter -, the World War I, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race looking out for its best interests. The following example will give you a hint of Taleb’s intuition:Ĭonsider a turkey that is fed every day. They are retrospectively predictable, thus explainable only after they have already happened. They are extremely hard to predict with historical data, ![]() Taleb defines Black Swan events as a composition of three key fundamental factors: ![]()
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